Alok Chakraborty

Who are the favorites to win FIFA World Cup 2026?  I am not Paul the Octopus. Neither am I Achilles the Cat. World Cup tends to bring out oddities and its strange theatre when it comes to predictions. Neither am I Gary Neville, the football pundit and nor am I Statman Dave, the football data analyst. I am just a football fan, and one of football’s most irresistible ways to embarrass yourself is predicting who will win the World Cup.  And with the FIFA World Cup 2026 just around the corner, there are plethora of predictions and lists, by pundits, football writers and data analysts alike. Some based on data, some on individual player’s form and some merely based on their gut feeling and ardent following.  I promise, this is not going to be yet another list where I rank teams. And I am aware this will not age well if my predictions don’t come true. And with the new format in for FIFA World Cup 2026, more nations will be part of the tournament meaning more competition and more chances of upsets. However, what I will make sure to do is to rank the teams based on team composition and recent form for context and give you my top 7 teams who have the best chance to lift the trophy come 19th July 2026.  So here we go. My list of Top 7 teams in ascending order of likelihood to win the upcoming 2026 FIFA World Cup.  Netherlands Led by Ronald Koeman, Oranje are tactically well-balanced heading into this edition. With the backline being their strongest aspect, the team oozes Premier League quality and experience. The nation that gave the world Total Football have time and again beaten the odds and risen to the occasion whenever called upon. The Oranje topped their qualifying group with a positive goal difference of +23 and remained unbeaten.  Koeman, a Netherlands legend, knows what it takes to perform at the highest level and will bring the same meticulous preparation to this edition. Alternating between 4-3-3 and 4-2-3-1, the team has demonstrated fluidity in and out of possession, with the wide forwards playing an important role, especially in transition and counterattacks.  Pros: Netherlands’ biggest strength is their defensive unit, arguably one of the strongest in the tournament. Featuring Brighton shot-stopper Verbruggen between the sticks, he kept 10 clean sheets in the 2025/2026 Premier League season and made 106 saves.  The backline is further reinforced by two explosive full backs in Inter’s Dumfries and Spurs’ Micky van de Ven. Incredible speed, powerful bursts and second-to-none ball-carrying abilities mean their defence can spring forward in a blink of an eye with flair and creativity.  But their biggest advantage lies in the form of their centre-back, who is equally capable in both the boxes. Captain Virgil van Dijk remains the spine of this team, bringing aerial dominance, leadership and set-piece threat. However, Timber’s injury could prove to be a big blow to the squad.  Netherlands have a decent midfield with the return of Frenkie de Jong and Gravenberch, who had a decent season with Liverpool. The City star, Tijjani Reijnders, might occupy the #10 role and could become an integral player to gel the whole team into one cohesive unit. It is not optimum, especially for a nation that saw the rise of the legendary Johan Cruyff, and when other squads are much better packed in the middle of the park. Set pieces could become vital for Netherlands if there is a lack of creativity and decisiveness while going forward.  Cons: The biggest chink in their armour is the lack of an out-and-out striker. A proper #9 who can lead the line. The nation that saw van Basten, Dennis Bergkamp, Ruud van Nistelrooy and Robin van Persie finds it hard to believe that they cannot produce a striker of that calibre. Dutch strikers of the past were not just technically gifted but had swagger and a touch of elegance.  Be it van Persie’s flying header or Bergkamp’s immaculate first touch to control the ball for his stunning and iconic 89th-minute winner against Argentina in the 1998 World Cup, each striker of the past had a highlight-reel fans around the world would watch to this date.  Then to now, with Memphis showboating without end product, Gakpo’s inconsistency and reliance on Wout Weghorst, the erstwhile Burnley striker, it not only reeks of imbalance and lack of depth but also speaks of desperation to fill in.  Players to Watch: Virgil van Dijk & Tijjani Reijnders.  Winning Probability: 5.5%  Elite defence and tournament pedigree give them a chance, but the lack of a reliable No. 9, consistent output from midfield, creativity concerns, Timber’s injury and a difficult knockout ceiling keep them below the top six.  Argentina The current world champions, Argentina remain one of the top favourites to lift the cup this year. In what will most likely be the last outing of Lionel Messi, can La Albiceleste follow up their Copa America triumphs and defend the title? The majority of the squad remains the same from their previous success, with head coach Lionel Scaloni knowing exactly what it takes to go deep into the tournament and dethrone some of the top contenders.  Their run of form is solid, and because most of the same squad members have played together for the last four years, the team is well-drilled and plays in tandem with almost telepathic co-ordination. The only major change will be Angel Di Maria no longer making the playing XI after his retirement, making way for youth to come in and add pace to an otherwise experienced squad.  Scaloni will look to stick with his 4-3-3 formation, with Enzo Fernandez at the centre of the park playing a crucial role. Almada and Alvarez will have to do the bulk of the running to cover spaces for Messi, who will be deployed as a False 9. And with Como’s breakout star Nico Paz looking to make his mark on his World Cup debut, there is no shortage of firepower in the squad.  Pros: The presence of Lionel Messi is enough to take down any opposition. But football is a team sport, and the ageing legend will need his team around him to succeed.  With the highest shot conversion ratio, Argentina’s frontline is the biggest threat to every squad. Their recent form is also a testament

What is the format for FIFA World Cup 2026?  Jointly hosted by Canada, The USA and Mexico, the FIFA World Cup 2026 edition will see 48 nations featuring in this mega sporting event. This is the first time that the World Cup will see 48 nations going head-to-head, keeping up with sport’s global pull, growing fanbase and ever-increasing quality of the competing nations. Since 1998, the tournament featured 32 teams, divided into 8 pools, with top two nations from each pool then progressing to the round of 16.   The 23rd edition of FIFA World Cup will see an additional 16 teams battle it out in a 39-day tournament to etch their name in the sports’ most glorious global event. This amounts to a total of 104 matches over 39-day period spread across 16 cities, co-hosted by 3 nations.   How does this change the fixtures for FIFA World Cup 2026?   Due to increased number of participating teams, nations will progress to a new knock-out round of 32 teams. The teams are divided into 12 groups A to L, with top two teams from each group progressing directly to the next round. The top two teams from each of the 12 groups, plus the eight best third-placed teams, will advance to the Round of 32. FIFA’s official ticketing FAQ confirms 12 groups of four, 72 group-stage matches, and the eight best third-placed teams advancing.  Back in 2013 Michel Platini, the then UEFA president, had already suggested expanding the tournament given the quality, participation and popularity of the sport across nations. This was echoed by the then FIFA president Gianni Infantino back in 2016. While this was viewed as a political move back then, FIFA Council driven by the quality of the participating nations finally made the decision to expand the format.    FIFA World Cup’26: The First of Many:  Apart from expanding the format from 32 to 48 teams, FIFA World Cup 2026 has a host of other feats that it will record for the first time:   Co-hosted by 3 nations: This 23rd edition will see 3 nations co-host the tournament, something that has never happened before.   Longest duration: The duration of the tournament will stretch to 39 days from otherwise 32 days. A week extension will mean squeezing the upcoming domestic leagues into a tighter schedule for players to return; or pushing the campaigns further into latter half of the month.   Most number of matches: As opposed to 64 matches, FIFA World Cup 2026 will see a busier fixture schedule with 104 matches. With European players coming off from competitive domestic leagues, it will be interesting to see how the longer format affects the fatigue and fitness level of players.   Record-player participation: 1,248 players are on the roster featuring from 449 domestic clubs across 71 nations. Out of which, 357 players have already featured on at least one of the previous editions and remaining 891 are making their debut on the world’s biggest stage.   Domestic club contribution: As always, English Premier League is contributing over 200 players this season, whereas Bundesliga is contributing around 109 players. Ligue 1, La Liga and Serie A are contributing a combined total of 243 players. Saudi Pro League since its rise is seeing a record contribution of 49 players with MLS following shortly thereafter at a count of 44 players.   Club level contribution: Manchester City holds the record of highest player contribution at 19, followed by Bayern Munich with 18, PSG & Arsenal with 16 and Barcelona with 15.   Record Appearance: Cristiano Ronaldo is leading the appearance count at 226 caps at the start of 2026 World Cup with Lionel Messi following shortly after for national caps. However, Messi leads the World Cup appearance with 26 appearances. They will be the only players alongside Guillermo Ochoa to feature in 6 world cups. This World Cup could also see Cristiano break his own record of scoring in 6 different world cups with his current tally standing at 8 goals across 5 World Cup in 22 matches.   Goals: Messi’s current world cup goals tally stands at 13, closely behind the leader Miroslav Klose (16), Brazilian Ronaldo (15) and Gerd Muller (14). Kylian Mbappe is poised to close the gap as his tally stands at 12. The Galactico star is expected to surpass these legends with the France being current favorite to lead the tournament.   How did teams qualify for World Cup 2026?  There is an extensive regional tournament each nation was part of. From those qualifying tournaments, some of the nations got direct entry while some made it into play-offs. The final 48 teams made it into the final roster by qualifying across 6 regional confederations:  Host Nations: Host nations get automatic seats at the World Cup. Canada, The US and Mexico made it through without any qualifiers.   Regional Confederations:  a. Europe’s UEFA Nations League saw 12 nations making it directly to the World Cup. The remaining 4 European spots were decided by play-off among 12 group runners up.  b. CONMEBOL allowed top 6 South American nations to qualify directly into the world cup through a single round-robin tournament.  c. CAF allow 9 group winners direct entry to the world cup. 1 team is selected from the play-off between 4 runners-up from each group. A total of 10 out of 54 makes it to the final cut. d. AFC, CONCACAF and OFC make up for the remaining teams from Asia, North America, Carribean, and Oceania.  e. DR Congo and Iraq made their way to the World Cup via Intercontinental Play-offs.   Here’s a detailed breakdown of nations as per regional confederations:   Co-hosts: Canada, Mexico, USA   AFC: Australia, Iraq, IR Iran, Japan, Jordan, Korea Republic, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Uzbekistan   CAF: Algeria, Cabo Verde, Congo DR, Côte d’Ivoire, Egypt, Ghana, Morocco, Senegal, South Africa, Tunisia   Concacaf: Curaçao, Haiti, Panama   CONMEBOL: Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, Paraguay, Uruguay   OFC: New Zealand   UEFA: Austria, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Czechia, England, France, Germany, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Scotland, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Türkiye  Of these, Cabo Verde, Curaçao, Jordan & Uzbekistan are making their debut in the tournament.   What does this mean for the fans?  The longer duration, more nations, and a new Round of 32 will ensure football fans relish this period. Football fans usually face a 2–3 month hiatus after domestic leagues end before they can watch their favorite players in action again. However, the World Cup, which arrives only once every four years, changes that. As the most anticipated sporting event in the world, it is expected to be the highest-grossing event of the year. The tournament is set to begin on 11th June with the final to be hosted on 19th July.While the giants are favored to go all the way, history shows that even newcomers can cause major upsets. That unpredictability is what makes the tournament worth the four-year wait.